By Jim Field
The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts this Tuesday and runs through November, is predicted to be a deadly one. This past Thursday NOAA issued its expected lineup: 14 to 23 named tropical storms, including up to seven "major" hurricanes. More specifically on the hurricane front:
- 8 to 14 storms will strengthen into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher
- three to seven of these could reach category 3 status or higher--meaning sustained winds of 111 mph or higher
This adds up to picture of one of the most turbulent seasons ever (hope they're wrong!). Last month forecasters at Colorado State University issued similar predictions: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
NOAA's Administrator commented: "The greater the likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall." (No kidding. Really?) The big fear, of course, is a hurricane in the Gulf and its potential impact on (1) efforts to plug the leak and (2) the dispersion of surface oil. If a hurricane rolled over the spill area (moving counter-clockwise), the winds and storm surges would disperse the oil over a wider area and push it far inland into fragile marshes. Were this to in fact occur, a tropical storm researcher at Colorado State warned: "It would definitely turn an environmental disaster into an unprecedented environmental catastrophe."
Takeaway message for sportfishermen: buy extra line and bumpers, secure the hatches, and run for cover.
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